Kaliningrad region is among the Russian regions with highest population growth: What is the secret/reason?

Salavat Abylkalikov
Ph.D. (Sociology), Senior Lecturer
Vishnevsky Institute of Demography, HSE University
Moscow, Russia

Senior Researcher
Research Laboratory of Social and Demographic Studies, Bashkir State University
Ufa, Russia

Kaliningrad region stands out as one of the few Russian regions where the population size grew instead of decreasing, after the USSR break-up. This paper applies the demographic balancing equation to find out the contribution of fertility, mortality and migration to the total population growth in the Kaliningrad region.

The year of 2021 marked the 30th anniversary of the breakup of the USSR. Within those thirty years, Russia in general, and Russian regions in particular, have gone through various types of transformations, including demographic. By 2022, the total population of Russia decreased by 1.4% or by 2.1 million people[i], compared to the beginning of 1991.

At the same time, in a quarter of the regions of the country, there was still an increase in the population, or at least there was no reduction between 1991 and 2022. The reasons of this phenomenon may not be always obvious. Top-10 regions with highest population growth include, for example, three Caucasian republics. According to the official statistics, in Ingushetia, the population grew by 168%, in Dagestan – by 67%, in Chechnya – by 28%. In these Caucasian republics, the population growth results from relatively high fertility and low mortality, as well as from internal displacement of people within the regions observed during the two Chechen Wars, while the accuracy of statistics is also to be questioned.

The remaining seven regions in the top-10 leading by population growth include mostly traditional popular destinations both for internal and international migrants: Moscow and Moscow region (where the share of the population over 30 years grew by 40% and by 15%, correspondingly), Tyumen region and its autonomous okrugs[ii] (19% population growth), St. Petersburg and Leningrad region (with population growth by 7.5% and 13% correspondingly). However, Kaliningrad region with population growth of 14%, ranks even higher than St. Petersburg. What is the reason?

In the period 1991-2021, the total number of births in the Kaliningrad region, was 285.7 thousand people, and the total number of deaths – 402.8 thousand people. Therefore, the total population growth turns to be natural population decline, just as in most Russian regions, and equals 117.1 thousand people. Using the demographic balancing equation, we can calculate migration surplus for the period 1991-2021, as a difference between total population growth (128 thousand people) and natural population growth (-117.1 thousand people). Hence, migration surplus in the Kaliningrad region for the past 30 years amounts to 245 thousand people, indicating that the number of arrivals surpassed the number of departures for the period under study.

Total fertility rate in the Kaliningrad region in 1991-2022 was equal or below 1.8, in other years it was 1.1-1.6 births per woman, while the simple population reproduction requires at least 2.1 births per woman. A more accurate indicator, net reproduction rate, takes into account mortality, in addition to fertility. The highest net reproduction rate observed in 2016 was only 0.844, while in pre-pandemic year of 2019, it lowered to 0.655.

Net reproduction rate shows if the number of daughters is enough to replace the generation of mothers, considering the mortality rate, and is often used to describe the generation replacement trends in the population as a whole (i.e. both for males and females). Therefore, in the longer term, each new generation in the Kaliningrad region will be less in number than the generation of parents due to low fertility and relatively high mortality.

Thus, we can conclude that migration makes a significant contribution to the population dynamics. Most Russian regions, except for a few republics of the North Caucasus and Southern Siberia, have low fertility (just as in European countries) and high mortality (even before the COVID-19 pandemic). In the longer term, just as in the previous decades, the population growth divergence of the Russian regions will be driven by their attractiveness for internal and international migrants, and for current residents. Kaliningrad region makes a perfect example to follow.

[i] These figures include the population of the Crimea. Otherwise, the population decline amounts to 3% or 4.5 million people.

[ii] Autonomous okrugs include Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug–Yugra and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug.

Email: sabylkalikov@hse.ru

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