Transport accessibility of Kaliningrad region and geopolitical unsustainability

Ksenia D. Shelest
Dr., Associate Professor
Department of Economic and Social Geography, Institute of Earth Sciences, St. Petersburg State University
Russia

The Kaliningrad region, which has no common land borders with the main territory of Russia, is threatened with a transport blockade. The region may find itself in such a situation if the intentions of Poland and the Baltic states to ban cargo transit through the territory of the EU countries to Russia and Belarus are realized. The situation will create problems for everyone, and not only in economic terms: the forced isolation of Kaliningrad is a direct path to a geopolitical conflict.

A significant volume of cargo from Russia to the Kaliningrad region transits through the territory of Lithuania and Poland by rail and by road. In addition, there is a ferry service bypassing foreign countries and an air service through Kaliningrad Khrabrovo airport. If necessary, alternative capacities can be increased, for example, by ferry line on “Princess Anastasia” from St-Petersburg to Kaliningrad via the Baltic Sea.

But the right to land transit was guaranteed by international agreements, and their rupture is fraught with serious consequences for the EU. Transport accessibility of the Kaliningrad region was guaranteed by agreements between Moscow and Brussels, on the basis of which Lithuania was admitted to the European Union. Nevertheless, now official authorities of Vilnius are pushing the EU to ban the transit of goods to the Kaliningrad region — in fact, we are talking about a commodity blockade.

Tensions between Russia and the Baltic states are growing. In particular, Lithuania deliberately weakens diplomatic ties, and also declares approval of the idea of a complete closure of borders with Russia and Belarus. Earlier, the Ministers of Transport of the Baltic States and Poland announced the initiative with the reservation that not only land routes should become inaccessible for Russian transit, but ports should also be closed to all ships under the flag of the Russian Federation.

Official authorities of Vilnius cannot unilaterally terminate international obligations to ensure transit to the Kaliningrad Region. The transit agreement is trilateral, its participants are Lithuania, the EU and Russia. The withdrawal of the European Union from these agreements and the attempt to isolate Kaliningrad region could undermine Russia’s national security, and could have negative consequences in geopolitical relations.

It is very difficult to analyze modern international relations from the point of view of classical theories of international relations, because the escalation around the Kaliningrad region is absolutely not in the interests of any country of the Baltic region.

If we are talking about the consequences of the closure of overland transit for the Kaliningrad region, then Russia was preparing for such an option due to the unreliable geopolitical relations with its neighbors during the last decade in this region. The necessary energy capacities were created, LNG terminals were built, ferry communication with Ust-Luga was established. At the end of March 2022, the regional government informed that in case of a negative scenario, the port, the ferry line, the number of vessels on which should increase in the near future, and the cargo part of Khrabrovo Airport would take over the transport load.

The governor of the Kaliningrad region Anton Alikhanov mentioned that the closure of transit for the Baltic States will be extremely painful, logistics forms 20-30% (depending on the country) of the size of GDP. The transport complex of these countries is focused on the Russian market or transit cargo that goes through the territory of our country. He considers that international obligations to ensure transit to/from the Kaliningrad Region and economic factors for our own economies will be taken into account when making decisions.

In the meantime, the transit movement of goods to the Kaliningrad region through Lithuania continues. The transit of gas to the Kaliningrad Region is also carried out without hindrance, despite the fact that Lithuania has refused Russian gas for itself. It is also known that all Baltic countries have no consolidated position on banning transit for Russian goods.

It is very important to keep in mind a geographical factor. “The New Silk Road” – a multimodal route from Asia to Europe, where Kaliningrad plays the role of an important transit hub, is existed and will not disappear anywhere. And, although there is a certain deceleration in this direction now, the further development will still return to it. Because existed logistics capacities are well developed and they won’t appear anywhere, at least not quickly. The alternative southern corridor, through Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, with transshipment on the Caspian Sea and the Black Sea, cannot become an alternative, because it is much longer and more expensive.

By information of the governor of the Kaliningrad region Anton Alikhanov Federal authorities’ attention to Kaliningrad region has become more in the recent years. There are continuing large-scale investment projects like new roads construction projects. A bridge over the Pregolya River is being built in the regional center, the construction of the Primorsky Ring highway connecting the coastal cities continues, and other major infrastructure projects with federal participation, such as the cargo and passenger port in Pionerskoye.

In conclusion, I would like to mention basic principles of sustainable development in the Baltic sea region, which we have thought our students within the educational network “The Baltic University Programme” since 1991 – international cooperation between countries and all stakeholders’ negotiations in terms to achieve a mutual understanding and peaceful problem solving in all spheres of human activities from ecology to economics and politics. Hope that we could overcome all economic hardships and geopolitical problems via a process of the governance and involvement of all interested parties in the discussion, then we try to hear each other, first of all, and try to reach a mutual understanding and a geopolitical sustainability.

Expert article 3262

>Back to Baltic Rim Economies 3/2022

To receive the Baltic Rim Economies review free of charge, you may register to the mailing list.
The review is published 4-6 times a year.