Deliberative mini-public increased optimism about the future

Leino, M., & Kulha, K. (2023). Hopes over fears: Can democratic deliberation increase positive emotions concerning the future? Futures.

Deliberative mini-publics are often seen as a way to help citizens think more long-term. However, imagining the future can evoke stress, worry, or fear in individuals. This study asks whether deliberative mini-publics can strengthen positive emotions, such as hope, and reduce negative emotions regarding the future. Furthermore, based on previous research, the study explains why a positive outlook on the future matters in long-term decision-making.

The researchers analysed the Satakunta Citizens’ Dialogue, held online in 2020, which aimed to contribute to the regional plan targeting the year 2050. Within the framework of the mini-public, the study examined how such a deliberative dialogue can support a long-term, future-oriented mindset. Additionally, the study explored whether such a mindset could be enhanced by incorporating an imaginative journey into the future into the process. In the experimental setup, half of the groups completed this Future Design time-travel exercise. For the study, all participants were asked to complete one questionnaire before the event and two during/at the end of the event. In addition, the small-group discussions were both recorded and transcribed, and some participants were interviewed after the event.

Overall, participants reported feeling more hopeful about the future, and some negative emotions diminished. However, the results varied between groups. The interviews suggest that the panel’s work felt meaningful and enjoyable, even though some participants remained pessimistic about the challenges facing the region or doubted the mini-public’s actual impact. Since the study examined only a single case involving a relatively small number of participants, the researchers caution against drawing generalizations from it and call for further research on when and how this type of deliberation changes attitudes toward the future.

Read the study 🔓 (open access)
Read more about the Satakunta citizens’ assembly