An increase in knowledge changed voting intentions in the referendum

Christensen, Henrik; Leino, Mikko; Setälä, Maija; Strandberg, Kim (2022): Knowledge, Trust or Perspectives? A Causal Mediation Analysis of How a Citizens’ Jury Affected Voting Intentions in the General Public. Swiss Political Science Review.

Previous studies show that the information gained from deliberative citizen discussions helps voters make informed and considered voting decisions. However, the precise cause-and-effect mechanisms have remained unclear. This study examines alternative mechanisms through which deliberative citizen discussions may influence voting intentions: they may increase voters’ factual knowledge, function as a trusted source of information, and improve the ability to see issues from new perspectives. The study analysed which of these mechanisms best explains changes in voting intentions.

The article deals with voting intentions in a referendum on a proposed municipal merger between Korsholm and Vaasa. Before the vote, the researchers organized a citizens’ jury in Korsholm, consisting of randomly selected residents. The citizens’ jury received information on the topic and produced a public statement outlining the key facts of the merger as well as the main arguments for and against it. The statement was sent to the treatment group, who were instructed to read it and then complete a survey about their voting intentions. The control group completed only the survey without reading the statement. The opinions and voting intentions of the treatment group were compared with those of the control group.

Reading the citizens’ jury statement increased the treatment group’s factual knowledge, trust in the jury, and their ability to view the issue from new perspectives. Reading the statement shifted the treatment group’s views so that, among those who had previously been unsure, a larger share expressed an intention to vote against the municipal merger rather than for it. Only the increase in factual knowledge was associated with the change in voting intentions. Increased trust and broadened perspectives had little effect on voting intentions.

The study shows that statements produced by deliberative citizen discussions can help voters base their decisions on factual knowledge. In addition, the results indicate that deliberative citizen discussions can also influence the views of the broader electorate.

Read the study 🔓 (open access)
Read more about the Korsholm citizens’ jury