Report Published
The report Future directions and possibilities for the university: Report on literature review and Delphi study on the possible future trajectories of the university is now published and can be read in https://www.utupub.fi/handle/10024/179116. The report is part of a larger continuous project Strategic Foresight and Futures Thinking Initiative.
The report contains the results of the analysis of the operating environment of universities that was conducted by the Strategic Planning Unit of the University of Turku together with Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC). Some of the results and themes have already been discussed in the previous news blogs. In this text, I discuss the content in terms of futures studies as a field.
Analysis of Operating Environment as Research
The analysis of the operating environment was primarily based on a literature review and a subsequent Delphi survey. We reviewed over 200 scientific texts relevant to the subject. It quickly became evident how multifaceted and unique institutions universities are. Scenarios—a common tool in foresight—would not be sufficient on their own to understand the possible futures of universities. Therefore, we divided universities into 10 different dimensions, such as societal purpose, international orientation, and educational organization, and identified different development directions for each dimension. This allowed us to create a multidimensional description of possible development paths for universities. This means that, in total, we can discuss 30 different paths and their mixtures – the reality is somewhere between the idealized end-points.
In addition to helping understand various possible futures, the analysis where several dimensions and their paths are explicated also provides a tool for the university units to examine their own position in relation to these possible developments. University units can differ significantly from one another, and no analytical tool that fails to account for these differences can be sufficient. Our report offers such a tool by enabling discussion – with agreements and disagreements – of different development trajectories from the perspectives of diverse traditions and practices that can be found within any university.
Possibilities and Desirability – The Delphi Study
It was not only important to understand the possible futures universities may face. Equally crucial at the University of Turku was to understand what university members – researchers, students, administration, and other staff – think about these futures. To achieve such understanding, we conducted a Delphi study to ask what university members consider probable and desirable when it comes to the future. The statements were designed to provoke thoughts and bring out views that might not emerge in more traditional discussions. In addition to the probability and desirability assessments, we gathered valuable insights from the open comment sections, which often reveal perspectives that might be overlooked in the literature review.
Concluding remarks
While the most interesting results cannot all be included in this text and are discussed in the previous news blogs, some should be highlighted to provide a sense of the nature of the study.
First, universities are continuously balancing societal impact, economic goals, and fundamental research. The demands from the side of the wider society often pull in different directions. The Delphi study showed that the societal mission is seen as desirable, but market orientation is expected to be more likely. A common thought and worry seems to be that universities are likely to shift towards more commercial interests, despite the tension this creates with their social responsibilities that cannot be measured in economic terms.
Second, global research collaboration and local relevance create a significant tension. Universities aim to be part of global networks, while also expected to contribute to their local communities. The Delphi study revealed varying opinions on this balance. Some see global engagement as essential, while others stress the importance of local ties. Whether a university can succeed in both areas or must focus on one is a central question. The geopolitical tensions and the regional clusters this might create adds another path that might make the question between local and global even more difficult and multidimensional.
Third, in teaching, the main tension seems to lie between scalable, mass-oriented education and more personalized, tailored teaching. Scalable teaching allows universities to reach more students, but the Delphi study showed that personalized methods are considered more desirable. Yet, the study also indicated that standardized models are, according to the members of the university, more likely to prevail due to the scarcity of resources. Technology and its development will be integral part of both paths (and everything in between) but different technological solution might be associated with different paths.
Reference:
Virmajoki, V., Ahokas, I., Witoon, S., Ahlqvist, T., Kirveennummi, A., & Suomalainen, K.-M. (2024). Future directions and possibilities for the university: Report on literature review and Delphi study. A Report by University of Turku Strategic Planning Unit in collaboration with the Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC). ISBN 978-952-249-617-1.
