WP3: Policy

The objective of WP3 Policy is to understand how urban development, including climate policy, drive vulnerability and exposure, and how adaptation can be used to alleviate undesired transformations. WP utilises existing data and gathers new empirical social and policy data from the Six Cities, based on engagement with the city stakeholders. We examine the drivers, socioeconomic dynamics and urban policy with a two-fold strategy, one examining historical developments and also by projecting policy decisions to the future.

First, in Task 3.1, we establish a conceptual base to understand the development of health-related vulnerability and exposure using systematic review of scientific (incl. gray) literature, and policy documents of the Six Cities, analysed with both bibliometric and content analysis.

In Task 3.2, we identify empirically the drivers of vulnerability and exposure in participatory workshops designed to identify historical links between environmental risks, urban development and policy decisions (Räsänen et al. 2017). Based on preliminary results of WPs 1 and 2 and in collaboration with the city stakeholders, we will sample one study area within each of the Six Cities. The areas include areas that are hypothesized to have (1) high current exposure/vulnerability, (2) high future climate change-driven exposure (e.g. heat), and (3) low vulnerability and exposure. Key stakeholders related to urban development and policy will be identified and invited to the workshops. At the workshops, drivers for vulnerability and exposure are discussed in groups and their relative importance is assessed by using a participatory weighing method. Then a timeline of events and policy decisions is identified that has contributed to the emergence of vulnerability and exposure within the study area. The workshop data will be complemented with quantitative participatory-GIS surveys targeted to local residents within the study areas, to gather evidence about local perceptions of vulnerability and exposure drivers and their spatial allocation. This will feed into the policy model developed in Task 3.4 and synthesis in WP4.

Second, in Task 3.3 a conceptual model is developed, identifying policy instruments that affect the emergence of vulnerability and can be used to adapt to climate change related health risks. This involves using the historical timelines to identify key policy areas with the urban sphere and developing a policy instrument typology (Klein et al. 2018).

In Task 3.4, this typology is then used to develop a dynamic pathways model of different policy outcomes (Haasnoot et al. 2013). The model will be coupled with climate and urban development scenarios produced in WP1, and possible future policy outcomes will be modeled to year 2050. The pathways model enables the examination of potential impacts of urban development including urban and climate policy as drivers of vulnerability and exposure and how these may affect health related climate risks. The outcomes of the policy pathway model are presented to the Six Cities and their credibility evaluated through participatory processes with city stakeholders and the historical timelines.